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Oil price: outlook for the next two years

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On 11 February 2015, Wood Mackenzie held its annual Short Term Oils Market Seminar during International Petroleum Week in London titled “The changing Atlantic basin crude oil landscape and its impact on European refining”. During that seminar, Wood Mackenzie presented its views on the short term oil market and refining outlook, along with its highlights of the medium term European refining and chemical perspective.

Ann-Louise Hittle, Vice President Macro Oils, gave a presentation on the crude oil market outlook for the next two years. We are sharing this presentation with our clients as an update on recent developments in the market and to provide our view through 2016. The analysis is part of our oil markets retainer service, Macro Oils.

To summarise our view, we forecast that oil prices will recover during this year because of the effect of low prices on supply. This presentation shows our latest forecast for US production, for example, and how the rate of growth is expected to slow in the second half of 2015. Along with our expectation for 0.9 million b/d growth in oil demand, overall supply developments this year will help rebalance the market.

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